Why a strong El Niño matters 6–12 months later, what the data since 2015 actually shows, and how to use it without over-trusting it.
Disclaimer: Data may be delayed, incomplete or inaccurate. For education and research only. Use at your own risk. Not financial advice.
Short write-ups on palm oil markets, FCPO trading models, and the code behind my tools.
Why a strong El Niño matters 6–12 months later, what the data since 2015 actually shows, and how to use it without over-trusting it.
Extract, filter, store in Parquet and deliver a daily digest, plus the small design choices that made it safe to run every few minutes.
How an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model turns a noisy spread into a fair level, a half-life and a z-score, and why the half-life filter matters more than the entry level.
Why options on futures need Black-76 rather than Black-Scholes, what each Greek means for a palm oil position, and how to read implied volatility.