https://boonwui.github.io/ Monthly palm oil market notes written on MPOB release day, and articles on palm oil markets, trading models and the code behind them. Not financial advice. en Tue, 10 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://boonwui.github.io/market-notes/2026-11.html https://boonwui.github.io/market-notes/2026-11.html Tue, 10 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Malaysian palm oil stocks rose 111k tonnes to 3.62 million at the end of October, the highest since this data set starts in 2014. The site's model puts November stocks at 3.96 million (likely 3.74–4.16). https://boonwui.github.io/blog/mpob-nowcast-case-study.html https://boonwui.github.io/blog/mpob-nowcast-case-study.html Tue, 10 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000 How I automated the MPOB palm oil data, froze every forecast before the release, and changed the model only when a back-test said so. https://boonwui.github.io/blog/lseg-news-pipeline.html https://boonwui.github.io/blog/lseg-news-pipeline.html Tue, 10 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000 How I pull palm oil news from LSEG/Refinitiv, filter it to what matters, store it in Parquet and deliver a daily digest, and the design choices that kept it reliable. https://boonwui.github.io/blog/el-nino-palm-oil.html https://boonwui.github.io/blog/el-nino-palm-oil.html Tue, 10 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Why a strong El Niño matters for palm oil 6-12 months later, what the data since 2015 actually shows, and how to use it without over-trusting it. https://boonwui.github.io/blog/calendar-spreads-ou.html https://boonwui.github.io/blog/calendar-spreads-ou.html Thu, 05 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Modelling palm oil futures calendar spreads as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process: fair level, half-life, z-score signals and the filters that matter. https://boonwui.github.io/blog/black-76-fcpo-options.html https://boonwui.github.io/blog/black-76-fcpo-options.html Thu, 05 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Why options on palm oil futures use the Black-76 model, what the Greeks mean for a position, and how to read implied volatility.