Disclaimer: These are model estimates, not MPOB figures, and they can be well off. Release dates are estimated. For education and research only. Use at your own risk. Not financial advice.
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MPOB Countdown & Nowcast
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board's monthly supply and demand report moves palm oil prices on the day it comes out. Here is a countdown to the next one, and a simple, back-tested estimate of what it may show.
Next MPOB report
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The estimate in brief
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Estimate
Thousand tonnes. The range is the estimate plus or minus its typical error over the last three years of back-tests.
Item
Last actual
Estimate
Range
Month on month
Year on year
Typical error
How good is the estimate?
Each month of the last three years was estimated using only data available before it, then compared with what MPOB published.
Production, thousand tonnes
MPOB actualEstimate made a month earlier
End-month stocks, thousand tonnes
MPOB actualEstimate made a month earlier
Method
Production and exports: last year's figure for the same month, scaled by the average year-on-year change of the last three months. That keeps the seasonal pattern and the current trend. Domestic use and imports: the average of the last three months.End-month stocks = last month's stocks + production + imports − exports − domestic use. Stock-to-usage = stocks ÷ (exports + domestic use).Not included: cargo surveyor export data (ITS, AmSpec), which traders use for exports and which is not free to republish, and weather. See the Weather Monitor for rainfall.Release date: MPOB usually publishes around the 10th of each month at about 12:30 pm Malaysia time; a weekend date moves to the next working day. Actual dates can differ. Data: MPOB, via the Palm Oil Market Monitor. Not financial advice.