Palm oil market note, November 2026
Malaysian palm oil stocks rose 111k tonnes to 3.62 million at the end of October, the highest since this data set starts in 2014. The site's model puts November stocks at 3.96 million (likely 3.74–4.16).
MPOB: October 2026
- Stocks 3,621k t, +111k t on the month (+3.2%) and +44.4% on a year earlier.
- Production 2,154k t (+1.7% m/m, +5.4% y/y).
- Exports 1,709k t (+55.7% m/m, +1.3% y/y).
- Imports 26k t; domestic use 361k t (worked out from the stock balance).
Against the nowcast
The forecast saved before the release was 3,748k t. The actual figure was 126k t below it, inside the likely range of 3,465–4,027k t. The biggest miss was exports: 156k t more than forecast.
For November 2026 the model expects production of about 2,001k t, exports of 1,324k t and stocks of 3,960k t (likely 3,741–4,163k t). MPOB is due to publish around 10 December.
Prices: October 2026 averages
- Palm oil $1,120/t (−5.1% m/m, +7.9% y/y).
- Soybean oil $1,546/t, so palm is $426/t below soy.
- Brent $125.0/bbl; palm is $204/t above crude per tonne.
Weather
The El Niño index (ONI) is +2.46°C for ASO 2026, a strong El Niño. Dry spells usually show up in palm output 6–12 months later. Rain in October 2026 was 100% of normal across the Malaysian palm belts and 86% across the Indonesian ones.
Energy and the ringgit
Brent was $107.03/bbl on 2026-11-03 (EIA) and the ringgit 4.0525 per US dollar on 2026-11-10 (Bank Negara noon rate).
Written automatically from public data on the day MPOB published: MPOB (monthly release), World Bank Pink Sheet (monthly averages), NOAA (ONI), Open-Meteo (ERA5), EIA and Bank Negara Malaysia. It describes the data and makes no forecast of prices. For education only. Not financial advice.