← BoonWui portfolioMPOB Nowcast · Bursa Monitor · View code

Disclaimer: A small-sample study on public data with estimated release dates. Past reactions do not predict future ones. For education and research only. Use at your own risk. Not financial advice.

Loading data…

MPOB Day: Do Plantation Stocks React?

Traders say the MPOB report moves palm oil prices on release day. Free daily palm oil futures data is not available to republish, so this study asks a related question with public data: around each release, did Bursa Malaysia's plantation stocks beat or lag the market, and did that line up with how far MPOB's stocks figure surprised the nowcast?

What the data shows
  • Loading…

Surprise against reaction

Each dot is one MPOB release. Across: actual end-month stocks minus the nowcast, thousand tonnes (right = more stock than expected, usually read as bearish). Up: the plantation basket's two-day return minus the KLCI's, %.

ReleaseBest-fit line

Every release

Newest first. Two-day window: close before the release day to close the day after, which allows for release dates being a day out.

Release (est.)MPOB monthStocks, ktNowcast, ktSurprise, ktPlantationsKLCIExcess return

Method and limits

Plantation basket: equal weight of the plantation stocks on the Bursa Monitor (…), daily closes from Yahoo Finance. Excess return = basket two-day return minus the FBM KLCI's. Surprise = MPOB end-month stocks minus the nowcast made with data available before that month, using the current nowcast formula on today's (revised) MPOB history. The market's real expectation is the analyst survey published before each report, which is not free; this nowcast is a stand-in. Release dates are estimated as the 10th, moved to the next weekday; holidays can shift them. Plantation shares also respond to their own results, the ringgit and the wider market, and around 35 releases is a small sample. Read the line as a description, not a trading rule. Not financial advice.